30 years ago, the former US prasident has the report "Global 2000" commissioned, where it was already warned against climate heat
Imagine a reborn Christian becomes prasident of the USA. "No heavy task", say. But now it gets harder, because this prasident puts solar modules on the roof of the woman’s house. "Nothing easier than that!"Call all left in the US – and typically tap Jimmy Carter. And you?
But the Americans say only half the truth, because both Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush have solar systems installed in the woman’s house. In the case of Carter it was solar collectors for hot water. Carter made himself on the 18th. April 1977 Friends and enemies equailed with his request in his first television to the nation, his Mithasters liked to wear sweaters and shut down the heating. Since then, every reputation is associated with economy in the US with a waiver of comfort. Carter is often seen as unsuccessful prasident (whether this is true, it is drawn), thus giving rise to threshold as a sign of weakness in the US. The Americans do not want to do without – they want to show a technical solution, progress, strong!
In the 1950s US researchers on Hawaii rather randomly discovered that the earth "breathes": in spring the plants take a lot of CO2 from the atmosphere, but they release them again in autumn. But the researchers also found that the carbon dioxide concentration dramatically increase. Arrhenius times (see below) was less than 300 ppm (parts per million). When Carter was prassident, the number was 332 ppm. Today we arrived at around 385 ppm, and the number continues to rise rapidly. Image: noaa
But because – not only in the US – solar warm water and solar power can not be dealt apart, it is always claimed, Carter had "Solar Power Panels" installed – the English-language entry at Wikipedia is also wrong. At that time, however, the photovoltaic was more of a bit of satellite (see pictures of the collectors then and today. The first prasident who likes the solar current modules in the sowing house was the current office owner Bush, in 2002.
How could it happen that every solar energy combines with Carter, but none with Bush? Bush Web quite from the intentions of renewable energies – he puts geothermal energy on his ranch in Texas and has been installed next to PV also solar warm water in the woman’s house. As the Governor of Texas he has demanded the wind energy there. Texas today has most of all federal states most wind energy in the US, but Bush did not translate this into federal politics. Quite different Carter: He created the Department of Energy (Germany still comes without energy ministry – the energy policy is shared by the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Economic Affairs) and set the course for an independence of energy imports. He sat down on the renewable and savings.
Carters soft tear out his successor Ronald Reagan. Many researchers followed Carter’s reputation and worked on wind and solar energy. Reagan remelt many with a deadline of two weeks without compensation. Thus, scientists are involved, what should not be researched. Since then, the country has been pursuing no goal. Soon this is tried, soon that, but above all everything will be stopped quickly anyway again. Also under Clinton / Gore was not different.
With Carter had another world can start. It started with the study "Global 2000".
Carter Love 1977 A study on population growth, resources and the environment by the year 2000
In a television on 23. May 1977 Love Carter announced that a study should be performed. Topic: Bevolzwachtum, resources and the environment by the year 2000. However, such studies have already been several times, among others "the boundaries of growth" of 1972. In detail, however, Carter did not want to carry out a new study, but merely the existing data from government sources to create an official US government report as a basis for political decisions.
The first finding was unintentionally: The data from the respective ministries love compare badly because they did not have a common base, D.H. The questions were different from the outset. A report came out with more than 1.000 pages. Alone the consuming (Volume I) is 300 pages.
In contrast to the co-study, a scenario is examined here: Business as usual. As with that should not be predicted because the study should help prevent the worst. The conclusions are well known today, but nevertheless to read very interesting. They are either antiquated because the problems of 30 years ago became manageable, or frightening, because the statements could come from today.
There is a cheap way to show up, where the study was wrong, because it is amazingly robust. For all Cassand revenge of because of "We only have 13 years to save the world" (according to press releases after the last IPCC report), however, it has to be said that much unpredictable happen. Just look for 60 years when Germany was still in donations. Was you seeing the victory train from VW, MP3 and Enercon from the perspective of 1947 – or rather an agricultural state à la Morgenthau?
How many years do we still have? If the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is rising on only 450 ppm (more than 50% more than 1900), you had to drive "by bike to the airport" (so the energy expert Jeffrey Michel), if aviation continues to rise as today as today. Image: Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research
In Global 2000 it is called, there is no solution for NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants. Today, up to 40% of NOx emissions are easily removed; the "Clear Skies Initiative" will reduce two-thirds from 2000 to 2008 in the US NOx emissions, criticizing environmental protectioners, one can continue to go. The entire Eastern Bloc could have 460 million inhabitants up to 2000? Today, the CIS has 279 million inhabitants, and Eastern Europe is the majority of the EU.
"Global 2000" was written in front of Chernobyl, before the fall of the wall and before the exhaust gas wake of coal-fired power plants. When it comes to wind raders, the study usually does not speak of power generation, but even at a point of "windmuhlen and access animals" in a breath. Since no new scenario was investigated and merely used on existing data, no US forecast is mentioned for solar or wind energy. There was none.
The study is exempting that Solar Sweden-Project. In the 1970s, the Sweden wanted to change to renewable energies. Today, the Swedes restart the nuclear power, but they can not control (decay of safety culture). In the nuclear power, the authors are mainly thought about the remaining uncertainties of the operation and the waste disposal. We are still doing that today.
The study also shows how progressive one thought then. "Economic growth" is criticized because both the environmental impact and their elimination are positively added. The term Return on Energy Invested (Roei) use the authors: "The Number of Calories Returned in Food Energy per Calory of Input Energy Declined by Almost 25 Percent from 1945 to 1970". Your forecasts for olresources are still resilient today: "During The 1990s, World Oil Production Will Approach Geological Estimates of Maximim Production Capacity" – want to heave soon after that demand exceeds the offer. Some mean today, we were so far now. Above all, however, the forecast for CO2 emissions is frightening true.
In 1988, a NASA researcher called James Hansen headlines with the term "global embracing" (to the fate of Hansen see muzzle for US scientist). However, the climate researchers had long before the effects of CO2 emissions, Hansen has only drawn the attention of US media as NASA employees. Also Helmut Kohl said in 1987 in the Bundestag:
In the increasing mabe worrying are global dangers of our Earth’s atmosphere. Thus, a serious climate change threatens through the so-called greenhouse effect.
At least since the study "on the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground" by Svante Arrhennius you suspect a homemade greenhouse effect. His study was published in 1896.
With climate change, Global 2000 lists everything as it is known today: The scientists do not know exactly how the consequences will look like, but probably the temperatures on the Poles increase faster than on the equator; the sea level rises; The earth maybe 3-6 degrees warm to 2100 and the burning of fossil fuels is probably one of the main causes, if not the biggest. Worse: Global 2000 refers to early studies that warn against an upcoming catastrophe and names their results "maybe even to conservative". Around a decade of Hansen’s announcement Global 2000 speaks from one – in the original in parentheses – "Greenhouse Effect".
One can only conclude that we have lost 30 years. Maybe we do not have 13 years more? Sure, if we make an effort now, it will make up something. But the message, it’s all about Spat, just releases.
Surely you could criticize the Americans, but in 1979 Germany was by no means on the way, the world fuses in Clean Tech to conquer. Germany is world champion in wind and solar because of a feed-in law, which the German 1990 copied from the Danen. The Danen have the idea of the Americans. In 1984, California alone had 90% of the installed performance worldwide – thanks to a feed-in tariff. Carter had not concluded from the findings of Global 2000, you have to develop all alternative energy sources, where goods today the wind energy?
Ware Germany Today Wind World Champion, if Carter never became Prasident? Another question seems important to me: how was the world look today when Carter was re-elected goods? The USA would be a solar and wind world champion today, and Al Gore goods possibly prasident (too bad about the slide lecture). The Americans were sometimes looking for the rest of the world (we want to remain realistic), but not because of lack of democracy, but because of poor energy policy.
A world that almost seemed close to grab, but nothing became. Carter lost the election against Reagan. In order to become the inflation Lord, the then chairman of the US Federal Reserve Paul Volcker had raised the key interest rate from 1979. The Americans went in November 1980 elections. The key interest rate climbed to 21 to December 1980.5% (normal goods rather 3-4%). It was then an expensive pleasure to record a loan. The Wahler did what they could – they turned off the prasident.
The dubious leisure Carters
The hostage of Tehran has not helped. Another prasident might have known how to beat the situation capital. CARTERS failed rescue operation was a laughing number, but that was also the Auberpolitik Bushs, when he was wedged in 2004. Bush’s "We will thrake you" is simple sexier When Carters "attracts you warm, nor did the energy crisis have not overlooked.
Spatere Energy Probe will challenge exactly Carter’s relationship between waiver and energy consumption, especially the German-American collaboration behind "Factor 4" – you can cut the consumption halve and simultaneously double the standard of living.
Carters did not survive energy policy, but the "Carter doctrine" From 1980, school made, because with her marched George Bush Sr. In Iraq:
At Attempt by Any Outside Force to Gain Control of the Persian Gulf Region Will Be Regarded AS An Assault on the Vital Interests of the United States of America, and search at Assault wants Be Repelled by Any Means NECESSARY, Including Military Force.
Jimmy Carter, January 1980
Carter is a born Christ, but retain his religion for himself. But religion over the USA. As the main author of Global 2000 in 1993 the only 100-page "Global 2000 Revisited: What Shall We do?"Published, a reliant appeal was in the foreground, which was missing in the original complete:
The Task Before US IS Fundamentally Spiritual in Nature: To Discover Who WE Humans Are, How We Are To Relate to Each Others and what We Are To Do, Individual and CollectiveLy, Here on Earth. So WE Turn With Our Questions to You, Our Spiritual Leaders.
From Carter’s mouth that sounded very different – a convincing objectivity that is missing today:
WE Must Not Be Selfish Or Timid IF WE Hope To Have A Decent World for Our Children And GrandChildren.
With Carter began a new ARA in the US energy policy. And unfortunately she ended with Carter.
Until 3. June the exhibition Moral Equivalent of War was in Friborg (CH) from the Swiss artists Roman Keller and Christina Hemauer, who made themselves looking for the solar system Carters. Craig Morris tries to resell the feedstares on Petite Planète to the Americans .